Phillies vs Mets Prop Bets for NLDS Game 3 (2024)

Prop bet #1: Aaron Nola Under 1.5 walks allowed

-120 at BetMGM

The Philadelphia Phillies saved righty Aaron Nola for Game 3, instead electing to hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2. As a result, Nola gets a little extra rest and gets to face the New York Mets at Citi Field.

I was tempted to target the Under on hits allowed and earned runs, but Nola doesn't overpower hitters, and teams can string hits together against him from time to time. The Phillies aren't the best defensive team, either, so would-be outs can squeak through for hits.

Instead, I like Nola to limit the free passes. The reset will do him a load of good. He walked one or none in roughly half his starts this season, but he should be in and around the zone all game. Citi Field is more pitcher-friendly despite being his road park, and Nola cruised to a complete-game shutout there earlier in the season.

Prop bet #2: Aaron Nola Over 16.5 outs recorded

-125 at Caesars

I'm double-dipping on Nola with my MLB picks. Pitcher leashes are much shorter in the postseason as every out counts, but the Phillies need length from their starter. Philly used five relievers in Game 2 and even though there was a day off in between games, Game 4 goes tomorrow with Ranger Suarez toeing the rubber.

For as good as Suarez was early in the season, he spent time on the injured list and simply didn't — or couldn't — pitch as deep into games down the stretch. After returning from injury, he didn't complete six innings once in seven starts.

With Suarez likely limited tomorrow, I expect Nola to be given a little extra time on the hill to spare the bullpen. Remember, it's not just about winning this series but staying sharp enough to compete in the NLCS. Nola routinely pitched deep during the regular season, throwing at least 80 pitches in all 33 starts while failing to reach 90 only four times.

Prop bet #3: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

+110 at BetMGM

Even if Nola pitches well enough to get through six innings, he can still surrender his fair share of base hits. He posted the lowest strikeout rate since 2015 this season and regularly saw traffic on the basepaths.

Pete Alonso remains the Mets' best home run threat despite some struggles, and I like him to have a solid showing at the dish. The Philly bullpen is good, if not spectacular, and is prone to the long ball, so he'll go from facing a pitcher who doesn't miss bats pitching in front of a defense that occasionally lets him down to a bullpen that has allowed 10 runs in two games this series.

Alonso hits behind Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo, all of whom are on-base threats. Alonso doesn't need to go deep to cash the plus-money Over as a result.

Jason Wilson